The lessons from Carrefour for Tesco

Tesco plc 是世界上第三大零售商，僅次於 Walmart 和 Carrefour (家樂福)。當初開始追蹤 Tesco 的時候，有看了一下 Carrefour 的一些數字，發現和 Tesco 比起來，Carrefour 的毛利率、淨利率和 ROE，比 Tesco 低很多。但是並沒有再追蹤下去為何如此。

買進 Tesco 的原因，是認為 Tesco 的淨利率和 ROE 看起來不錯，股價下跌應該只是因為處分虧損多年的美國轉投資所造成，本業和其他海外投資的狀況都還不錯。等到市場充分反映了這個事實，股價應該能回到正常的水位。

但是目前看起來，Tesco 的問題不只如此。最近這半年來的新聞和財報，顯示英國的主流零售商，受到來自歐洲(德國)的廉價超市影響，市佔率普遍下滑。此外，目前消費者偏好轉向住家附近的小型超市，減少前往郊區大型超市消費的次數，也使過去在郊外設置大型超市的主流零售商的營業額相對減少。

而這個現象，依據以下的報導，是過去十年歐洲已經發生的事實。英國主流零售商目前只是在跟隨歐洲主流零售商過去面臨的相同困境！

如果確實如此，目前在 Tesco 的部位也許不適合再繼續長期持有。畢竟 Tesco 未來很可能面臨目前 Carrefour 的相同處境，毛利率和 ROE 也會降低。目前的股價，也很有可能還是高估了。

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The lessons from Carrefour for Tesco

By Graham Ruddick | Telegraph – Mon, Jul 21, 2014 17:42 BST

Tesco (Xetra: 852647 - news) could face more pain if parallels with Carrefour (Paris: FR0000120172 - news) in France continue

If Tesco’s board and shareholders are looking for clues as to the battle ahead for the retailer, then look no further than Carrefour.

The similarities between the struggles facing Britain’s biggest retailer and France’s biggest retailer are stark.

The pair battle it out for the title of the world's second biggest retailer behind Walmart. But although Tesco and Carrefour have operations around the world, they rely heavily on their domestic businesses - and they have been struggling.

Roughly two-thirds of Tesco sales are from the UK, while half of Carrefour’s are from France.

In France, Carrefour has been under pressure in the last decade from discount chains and shoppers moving away from out-of-town supermarkets. Sound familiar?

Bruno Monteyne, analyst at Bernstein, said: "Both have generalist ‘good at everything’ retail offers, which are great when you are the first to open a supermarket on the edge of town.

"Both started struggling when people were getting more local choice of targeted retailers. In France it was Leclerc - offering value food, much cheaper than Carrefour. In the UK it was the discounters."

Carrefour’s answer to its challenges was also to hire a chief executive from the consumer goods world in 2009.

Carrefour brought in Lars Olofsson from Nestle (VTX: NESN.VX - news) as chief executive, but this led to five profits warnings in a year and he departed soon after.

Olofsson invested heavily in revamping Carrefour’s out-of-town stores and trying to make them upmarket destinations. However, he then slowed down the refurbishment programme and tried to cut prices.

Dave Lewis, Tesco’s chief executive, already knows he needs to do more that because his predecessor Philip Clarke has tried a similar strategy.

It took a radical back-to-basics overhaul from Georges Plassat, who replaced Olofsson, to get Carrefour back on track. He decentralised power to local stores, cut prices, and pulled out of underperforming overseas markets.

As a result, Carrefour last week reported an increase in like-for-like sales in France and its out-of-town hypermarket.

This should give Tesco hope that it can turnaround its performance. However, Carrefour’s turnaround is at least two years ahead of Tesco, and it has come at a heavy cost. Profit margins in France slumped from more than 6pc to a low of 2.5pc.

The lesson from France is that Britain’s biggest retailer faces more pain before trading improves.