2013年12月3日

2013 第三季 (Sep13 to Nov13) 的一些想法




  1. 這一季開始把 Firstrade 的美股也一起放進來比較,所以 Benchmark 多了 S&P 500 Total Return。S&P 500 Total Return 的資料還蠻難找的。
  2. NLY 是 2012 QE 還沒有結束跡象的時候買進的,當時的股利率還有 12% 左右。到了今 年中 Fed 傳出將結束 QE 以後,股價就大跌了 20%。還好沒有買太多。現在就等看未來幾個月是否有略微回升,趁機處分掉。
  3. WU 是不小心撿到的。九月的時候,WU 的股價還在 $19~$20 之間,因為 Firstrade 有 GT90 的下單功能,就下了一個 $16.35 的 GT90 Buy。到了 10 月底公布第三季季報時,管理階層發佈 2014 年獲利展望,因受到法律遵循成本(compliance cost)上升影響,將持平而沒有成長。這個消息一出來,股價一開盤馬上暴跌 15%,以 $15.72 開盤,所以一開盤 Firstrade 就以開盤價 $15.72 買進,當天最低到了 $15.51,但收盤時已經回到 $17.5 以上。美股因為沒有漲跌幅的限制,才讓我有這個機會以破盤價買進。這個現象還蠻有趣的。
  4. 雖然 WU 最近股價又由 $17 回到 $16,但其實公司狀況並沒有重大變化,甚至預測明年營收還會再成長,只是營收成長的部分都被增加的法律遵循成本吃掉了。看看到明年中,公司降低成本的一些措施是否有收到成效。
  5. 新普這一季好像在坐雲霄飛車,從季初約 $140 左右,幾天內暴漲至 $150以上。然後第三季季報發佈前幾天又因為外資估計未來幾年成長偏低,幾天內又從 $150 跌回 $130 以下。前幾週趁機會又在 $130 以下再買進。雖然股價暴漲暴跌,但其實新普獲利並沒有很大變化,今年每股估計還是會獲利 $10 以上,實在很難瞭解外資評價改變到底是依據什麼?這種股價變動實在很沒有道理。
  6. 今年從四月開始買進台股,到目前為止約八個月,跟報酬指數比較起來,我的績效竟然還是落後指數。雖然自己買進的依據和意圖都是長期投資,短期內可能會有落後指數的狀況,但到底這樣自己操作股票是否能夠超越指數呢?




2013年11月4日

遲了將近兩個月的 2013 第二季投資績效檢討

    平均成本 佔總成本比率 (%) 占市值比率 (%)   本季(6~8)獲利損失(%) 年度( 2013/3 ~ 2014/3)獲利/損失(%)
2317 鴻海          76.94 24% 24%   6% 5%
3010 華立           43.95 28% 24%   -6% -6%
6121 新普        126.68 40% 42%   10% 12%
3030 德律           38.68 8% 7%   -2% -2%
  Cash   0% 2%      
      100% 100%   6% 7%
               
Benchmark              
0050 台灣50         -2% 0%


鴻海

股價從四月買進以來沒有明顯的起色。除權息前漲到 $80 以上,除權息後也一直維持在除權息參考價 $74附近,沒有明顯的變動。公司近況部分,iPhone 5s 及 iPad 對第三季營收有正面影響,但幫助不大。接下來就要看第四季是否會有比較大的成長。PER 還是很低,市場觀感似乎認為代工業的風險較高;如果市場給予的 PER 一直偏低,即使鴻海持續維持相同的獲利能力,很難確定未來股價是否能夠回升。如果第四季股價仍沒有起色,到了明年上半年淡季來臨,股價會有什麼反應、是否能維持在除權息參考價以上,可能就很難說了。

如果股價沒有起色,進一步用定存股的角度來評估,就算鴻海維持相同的獲利能力,但如不肯發多一點現金股利,可能連定存股的價值都沒有。

新普

買進時對這間公司一點都不熟,看到新聞說 NB 電池營收因 NB市場衰退而減少,iPhone 和 iPad 電池毛利又偏低,有點擔心。不過好公司就是好公司,毛利率有維持住,競爭對手順達科就沒這麼好過了。第三季營收還不錯,未來似乎會更好。股價跟鴻海比起來活潑多了,上上下下變動速度很快,有時候一天可以漲跌 $5 ~$6。

這是現在未實現利益最多的一筆。


華立

代理業 PER 一直都偏低,雖然利潤不錯,因為代理業務有被原廠收回自營的風險。以殖利率來講,算是不錯的投資。現在就期待 PER 能夠有所反應...


德律

2012 第四季爆發賄賂鴻海高層的新聞後,營收就一直下滑。產品部分,有些人說其產品和 AIO 相同,但有些人說和牧德不同。無法確定是否鴻海已經轉單給牧德。假設以最近三季平均約 5% 的 ROE 來看,股價和 PER 在這個階段還算可以接受,就看未來是否有會好轉。

2013年3月30日

Empty home owners' council tax shock

原本「非主要自用房屋」(second home)和「空屋」的房地稅(council tax) 是可以打五折的,但現在市場上空屋太多,很多人買不起房子也租不起,因此許多地方政府打算要取消打折,並針對非主要自用房屋和空屋額外加徵 50% 的房屋稅!

這也許可以作為政府規劃房屋稅、地價稅及「空屋稅」的參考!


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Men renovating a house Concessions on empty homes and second homes are being removed in England

A million home owners who do not live full time in their property could see their council tax rocket in April, as most automatic discounts are to end.

The change, which will affect second homes and empty properties in England, could see bills for 2013-14 rise by 200%.

Previously, such properties had benefited from a 50% discount.

The new rules give councils more freedom to raise money locally and bring empty homes into use.

Councils do not have to increase taxes on second homes and empty property. But the Institute of Revenues, Rating and Valuation (IRRV) says early evidence suggests most of them are doing so.

Speaking on Radio 4's Money Box programme IRRV chief executive David Magor said financial need was forcing them to take advantage of the new rules.

"The government is trying to get a greater yield from council tax to keep the overall level down. And it is trying to encourage the occupation of empty homes.

"But sitting behind this is the funding of the council tax reduction scheme. Councils have had to adopt these provisions to find the money to finance those schemes."
Current exemptions
Altogether they must find more than £400m to fund the reduction scheme for low-income families. And the 710,000 empty homes and 250,000 second homes are an easy target.

“Start Quote
If they'd told us a year ago maybe I could've pushed and got it finished”
End Quote Katrina Empty property owner

Empty properties without furniture are currently exempt for six months in England and then get a 50% discount. In future the council can decide to charge the full payment from the start.

Similar changes apply to vacant properties which are undergoing major repairs or alterations. An automatic 12-month exemption ends in April and many councils are charging the full amount.

Once a property has been empty for two years they can charge a premium of 50% on top of full council tax.

Katrina bought a property in Rotherham to renovate while she still lived with her mother. Her council tax will rise from just under £50 a month to almost £150 as a 50% reduction becomes a 50% premium.

"There is no law against taking a long time to get it renovated. If they'd told us a year ago maybe I could've pushed and got it finished. But I've been given less than a month's notice."

Rotherham Council said it had consulted on the changes in the autumn.

"We had to make these very big changes because by abolishing the previous national Council Tax Benefit scheme the government left Rotherham with a huge shortfall that was previously used to help those vulnerable and most in need across Rotherham."

Landlords too will find their costs go up. At the moment they get six months free of council tax between lettings of unfurnished property. But from April that will end.

Adrian Thompson, Director of the Guild of Residential Landlords rents many properties out in the North of England. He says rents will have to rise.

"I can see no choice in the matter, Returns are very low anyway. I can't see any choice."

And he says it does not help that councils are all making different decisions.

"Harrogate are giving one week instead of six months. But Sedgefield is three months. And Leeds 20 miles away is zero, not even a day. It's a nightmare. "

Communities Minister Baroness Hanham defended the changes. "Localisation will give local authorities the flexibility to design council tax support schemes for working age claimants in their area. Many are delivering savings using their local flexibilities and discretion"