(Disclaimer: 以下分析及數據係依據看網路新聞的印象寫出來的...)
"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.", by Warren Buffett.
前任執行長 Philip Clarke的計畫是：
1. 重新整修郊區的大型店，加入餐廳等其他設施，吸引顧客停留，不再只是為了購物
2. 停止開發郊區的大型店，並計畫將閒置土地開發為住宅或其他用途
3. 開設市區的小型店
4. 不再堅持毛利；降價以吸引顧客，以略高的價格與廉價超市競爭
5. 開始銷售自有品牌手機和平板，並擴大網路購物來店取貨的服務，繼續增加網路銷售的規模
4. 不再堅持毛利；降價以吸引顧客，以略高的價格與廉價超市競爭
5. 開始銷售自有品牌手機和平板，並擴大網路購物來店取貨的服務，繼續增加網路銷售的規模
1.~4. 基本上和 Carrefour 所採取的策略相同，但 Carrefour 花了三年時間，兩任 CEO 在 2012 才完成。而且就算是目前 Carrefour 的 ROE 已經回到 15% 以上，EPS 也只是略低於當初的水準，股價也已經沒有辦法回到當年了：市場對於 Carrefour 看法已經改變，不會再給予像當初那麼高的本益比。
5. 基本上是學習 Amazon 的策略。Tesco 約佔全 UK 整體零售規模的 10%，網路購物佔 Tesco 營業額的 7%。換言之，Tesco 的網路銷售規模約佔全 UK 整體零售規模的 0.7%，就這點來說 Tesco 是 UK 網路銷售的領先者，而且是大幅領先。不僅如此，其網路銷售去年的成長率高達 14%。此外，單就在網路上購買食物(生鮮食品)而言，Tesco 有 50% 的市佔率。
現在看起來，Philip Clarke 採取的策略其實是正確的，只是做的有點太晚了而已。Tesco 大約還會有兩到三年的苦日子要過。網路銷售的部分，Amazon 現在的營業額佔全美零售業銷售額約 8% (Walmart 約 10%)，如果 UK 的市場變化未來會和美國近似，UK 網路銷售還會有很大的成長。以 Tesco 目前在 UK 網路銷售的優勢，未來大有可為。
新任 CEO Dave Lewis 要到十月才會上任。就他的背景來看，似乎沒有固定的偏好，反而是能夠依據市場狀況變化，採取各類不同策略的人。而現在市場上對於 Tesco 應採取的策略有以下幾種看法：
1. 直接、大幅度降價與廉價超市競爭
2. 採取多品牌策略，在不同地區依當地市場狀況分別設立低價、中階或高階的超市
3. 放棄手機和平板以及網路銷售，重新聚焦在實體店面的經營
如果 Philip Clarke 還是 CEO，我會對於 Tesco 的未來稍微有信心一點。畢竟 Carrefour 已經走過一樣的路，證明這是可行的策略。而且以 Tesco 在網路銷售的競爭優勢，未來有很大的成長空間。
一開始那句話是 Buffett 談到 turnaround companies 的時候說的。套在 Tesco 身上，無論 Dave Lewis 是否是好的執行長人選，Tesco 是否能夠好轉，還是要回到 Tesco 本身的 business model 來看。
就最近半年來在 BBC news 上面看到對於 Tesco 的批評，好像看到台灣人對於 7-11 的批評：大家就算再不喜歡 7-11 ，一再抱怨到處都是 7-11，沒有別的選擇，消費者還是一再回到 7-11 購物。
也許 Tesco 跟 7-11 一樣，都是:
a company we love to hate.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
現在看起來，Philip Clarke 採取的策略其實是正確的，只是做的有點太晚了而已。Tesco 大約還會有兩到三年的苦日子要過。網路銷售的部分，Amazon 現在的營業額佔全美零售業銷售額約 8% (Walmart 約 10%)，如果 UK 的市場變化未來會和美國近似，UK 網路銷售還會有很大的成長。以 Tesco 目前在 UK 網路銷售的優勢，未來大有可為。
新任 CEO Dave Lewis 要到十月才會上任。就他的背景來看，似乎沒有固定的偏好，反而是能夠依據市場狀況變化，採取各類不同策略的人。而現在市場上對於 Tesco 應採取的策略有以下幾種看法：
1. 直接、大幅度降價與廉價超市競爭
2. 採取多品牌策略，在不同地區依當地市場狀況分別設立低價、中階或高階的超市
3. 放棄手機和平板以及網路銷售，重新聚焦在實體店面的經營
如果 Philip Clarke 還是 CEO，我會對於 Tesco 的未來稍微有信心一點。畢竟 Carrefour 已經走過一樣的路，證明這是可行的策略。而且以 Tesco 在網路銷售的競爭優勢，未來有很大的成長空間。
一開始那句話是 Buffett 談到 turnaround companies 的時候說的。套在 Tesco 身上，無論 Dave Lewis 是否是好的執行長人選，Tesco 是否能夠好轉，還是要回到 Tesco 本身的 business model 來看。
就最近半年來在 BBC news 上面看到對於 Tesco 的批評，好像看到台灣人對於 7-11 的批評：大家就算再不喜歡 7-11 ，一再抱怨到處都是 7-11，沒有別的選擇，消費者還是一再回到 7-11 購物。
也許 Tesco 跟 7-11 一樣，都是:
a company we love to hate.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave Lewis: a new star for planet Tesco
By Graham Ruddick | Telegraph – Sat, Jul 26, 2014 14:35 BST
The supermarket’s incoming boss, Unilever (NYSE: UL - news) man Dave Lewis, must be a master of the retail universe, writes Graham Ruddick
In 1997, Procter & Gamble was preparing to take Ariel into Argentina and the southern tip of South America known as the Southern Cone for the first time.
Ariel was, and still is, one of the world’s best-known detergent brands. Expansion into Latin America was the next phase of growth.
However, P&G had not banked on Dave Lewis and his team. Lewis, who was this week named the new chief executive of Tesco (Xetra: 852647 - news) , was about to give P&G a lesson in how to defend a brand.
At the time, Lewis was director of marketing for Unilever in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. Unilever owned Ariel’s main rival, Persil, which was dominant in the region, accounting for 80pc of the market. It was concerned about the impact Ariel could have on sales. So, Lewis and his team hatched a plan. They discovered Unilever owned an obscure lavatory seat maker called Ariel del Plata.
The brand had never advertised in its 30-year history, but Unilever launched an extravagant campaign featuring rear-ends and toilets which repeated “Ariel, Ariel, Ariel” over and over again.
The campaign made the Ariel name synonymous with lavatory seats, ruining P&G’s plans to launch Ariel.
The US consumer groups giant was furious with its Anglo-Dutch rival, complaining to the Argentinian government that it was overseeing “serious illegal and unfair” practices.
However, the damage was done. After spending more than $500m (£295m), P&G withdrew from the market.
The lessons are still used by Unilever today as a benchmark for taking on competition. But the South American parable should also serve as an eye-opener for Asda, J Sainsbury and Wm Morrison.
On this evidence, Lewis is an imaginative and ruthless operator who could shake up the supermarket industry.
Paul Polman, chief executive of Unilever, has given his blessing to Lewis to take on the challenge at Tesco. “Dave is well-prepared, but it’s not an easy job,” he said.
Shares (Frankfurt: DI6.F - news) in Tesco’s listed rivals Sainsbury’s and Morrisons dropped 3.5pc in the two days following the announcement.
Although Tesco issued a profit warning , which cautioned that trading conditions were tough, alongside news of Lewis’s arrival, investors in the other supermarkets are concerned about the prospect of a wounded Tesco mounting a powerful counter attack.
David McCarthy, analyst at HSBC, said: “There will be a lot of pain along the way, without any guarantee of success. But the consequences of change at Tesco will be felt by Sainsbury and Morrisons as Tesco tries to reassert itself.”
The decision to oust Philip Clarke was not a knee-jerk reaction by Sir Richard Broadbent, the chairman of Tesco. Rather, it was a ruthlessly planned and executed coup.
The process is understood to have begun in April, when Clarke (Toronto: CKI.TO - news) was becoming increasingly criticised by former directors following the ousting of Laurie McIlwee as chief financial officer.
By this point Clarke was three years into the job as Tesco chief executive, but his £1bn plan to “Build a Better Tesco” appeared to be making little impact on sales.
This strategy involved revamping hypermarkets by installing Harris + Hoole coffee shops, improving own-brand food ranges and investing in digital ventures such as BlinkBox. It was based on Clarke’s view that Tesco had too much space across the UK, had underinvested in stores, and needed to develop its online services.
However, some leading shareholders and former directors became increasingly frustrated at Clarke’s reluctance to tackle what they saw as the key challenge for Tesco that the brand did not stand for anything any more.
Shoppers were deserting Britain’s biggest retailer for either Waitrose or Marks & Spencer (Other OTC: MAKSF - news) for quality food, or Aldi and Lidl for low prices. Many believed Tesco had to cut prices to move in line with Aldi and Lidl.
“It was a bit surprising,” one top-10 shareholder said of Clarke’s departure. “But one of the main issues has been that the strategy had to change.”
Around this time, Sir Richard approached a handful of potential successors. Lewis had already been identified by shareholders as a chief executive-in-waiting, as reported by The Sunday Telegraph earlier this year, and was well known by the board.
Patrick Cescau, the senior independent non-executive director at Tesco, was the contact at the retailer for many disillusioned shareholders and played a key role in the arrival of Lewis.
Cescau was chief executive of Unilever before Polman, running the business between 2005 and 2009, and extolled the virtues of Lewis to the board. But Lewis was also known to Clarke and the management team.
Unilever, which owns Flora, Lynx and Dove, is one of Tesco’s biggest suppliers and just two months ago the senior teams at both companies met.
In addition, Lewis was respected by the powerful Tesco old guard, many of whom are still shareholders. Sir Terry Leahy is understood to have tried to hire the 49-year-old while he was chief executive, and Sir Terry’s finance director Andy Higginson sits on the board of BSkyB with Lewis.
After Lewis was approached, he began a formal interview process and met with the nominations committee. This culminated in a job offer just over a week ago. The board approved the announcement in a conference call on Sunday night, and the changes were made public on Monday morning.
The recruitment process had been run with only a tiny group of people in the loop including Sir Richard, Tehan, and the rest of the nominations committee, Cescau, Stuart Chambers and Ken Hanna.
Although Clarke was quoted in the statement as saying it was the “right moment to hand over responsibility”, he was only told on the Friday night after the markets closed.
Privately, Clarke admits feeling “heavy-hearted relief” about stepping aside. He will have led Tesco for three and a half years when he stands down on Oct 1, and the pressures of the role are understood to have placed a strain on family life.
As well as the travelling and time demands that come with being Tesco chief executive, newspapers were banned in the Clarke household because of the criticism of the Tesco boss. He was due to celebrate his 40th anniversary as a Tesco employee with a party at the Victoria and Albert Museum last Tuesday. When this was cancelled, it was seen as a harsh move by Tesco.
But in reality, the party is likely to have acted as deadline for the nominations committee to resolve the succession issue. After all, it would have been even harsher to celebrate Clarke at the party then oust him afterwards.
The back story behind Clarke’s departure is important, because it demonstrates that Sir Richard has planned meticulously for Tesco to take a different course. Although he has been careful not to tie Lewis down by making public comments on the success or failure of Tesco’s strategy, Sir Richard has said he wants a “fresh perspective”.
“He is a proven turnaround man,” Sir Richard said of Lewis. “He is a leader in brand management and identity. He is a great communicator.”
Sir Richard has asked Lewis to think “laterally and broadly” about Tesco, which given his track record at Unilever should deliver interesting results.
It is understood Lewis wants to “listen” to customers and Tesco staff before deciding on a strategy and will use the treasure trove of data that Tesco possesses on shoppers.
Analysts have not been short of suggestions. Bruno Montenyne, analyst at Bernstein, says Tesco should consider splitting its stores into three and rebranding them as Tesco Value, Tesco Finest and a midmarket store. This would allow it to compete properly with the discounters and Waitrose. “Tesco faces distinct and targeted local competitors in most of its neighbourhoods,” he said.
John Kershaw at Exane has urged Lewis to sell off Tesco’s international businesses to help fund a revamp in the UK. He has estimated a sale of Tesco’s Asian assets could raise £11bn. “The international portfolio surely will be streamlined and a 'bad land bank’ ring-fenced and monetised to simplify the business, improve cash generation and cover the dividend,” he said.
But the favoured option for a number of shareholders is for Lewis to push the nuclear button and start an all-out price war to win back shoppers. This would make the market more difficult for Aldi and Lidl, but the European discounters have shown a willingness to move their prices even lower when one of the “big four” tries to close the gap.
However, Asda, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons would feel the pressure. Carrefour’s recent turnaround in France involved its profit margin falling from more than 6pc to a low of 1.5pc. Tesco’s still stands at 4.5pc, so there could be much further to go.
If Lewis decides to rebase Tesco’s margins then Sainsbury’s and Morrisons, which have margins of less than 4pc, could be severely squeezed. Morrisons has already warned that its profits will fall by half this year as it lowers prices to compete with Aldi and Lidl. The change of leadership at Tesco has given Dalton Philips, chief executive of Morrisons, a new concern. It will also strengthen the resolve of frustrated shareholders to push for change at the Bradford-based company.
When Lewis starts work at Tesco’s Cheshunt headquarters on Oct 1, a lot will be a stake, but not just for Britain’s biggest retailer. The rebuilding of Tesco will not be victimless, and Lewis has shown how far he is willing to go to protect his company’s brand.
